US programmer job growth nearly halved since ChatGPT launched, Fed study finds

Editor's take

The Federal Reserve Board has reported that job growth for US programmers has significantly decelerated, nearly halving since the public release of advanced generative AI models like OpenAI's ChatGPT in late 2022. This data suggests a tangible impact of AI on a skilled professional sector, moving beyond theoretical discussions of automation.

This development is consequential as it provides empirical evidence of generative AI's influence on the labor market for coders, a field previously thought to be relatively insulated from automation due to its complex problem-solving nature. The slowdown directly affects those entering the profession and could signal a shift in demand for certain programming skills, potentially favoring those who can leverage AI tools rather than compete directly with them.

Future indicators to monitor include whether this trend persists across other tech-adjacent roles, and if companies begin to explicitly cite AI adoption as a reason for reduced hiring or increased efficiency in engineering departments. A substantial increase in programmer productivity attributed to AI, without a corresponding drop in job growth, would suggest a recalibration of the workforce rather than outright displacement.