AI 2040 and the cult of intelligence

Editor's take

The article posits that current AI development, particularly the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2040, is driven by a quasi-religious fervor rather than a clear understanding of intelligence itself. This perspective frames the intense investment and optimistic timelines from companies like OpenAI and DeepMind not as scientific progress, but as a modern-day "cult of intelligence."

This matters because it challenges the prevailing narrative of inevitable AI advancement. If the foundational understanding of intelligence is absent, the projected capabilities and timelines for AGI become speculative, potentially leading to misallocated resources and unrealistic societal expectations. It prompts a re-evaluation of what "intelligence" truly means in the context of machines and whether current approaches are truly leading us there.

The critical question is whether this "cult" mentality will yield genuine breakthroughs through sheer persistence or if the lack of fundamental insight will result in stagnation. Future developments will hinge on whether researchers can move beyond the pursuit of ever-larger models like GPT-5 and its successors, and instead formulate a more robust, empirically grounded theory of intelligence that can then be demonstrably replicated in AI systems.