NYU finance professor Damodaran warns an AI crash could hit harder than the dot-com bust

Editor's take

Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU warns that the current AI boom, characterized by significant debt-financed infrastructure investment, carries a greater risk of a market correction than the dot-com era's primarily software-driven valuations.

This perspective is critical as it highlights the tangible financial commitments underlying AI development, from chip fabrication plants to massive data centers, distinguishing it from the speculative, asset-light nature of many dot-com companies. The sheer scale of capital being deployed by companies like Nvidia, TSMC, and cloud providers means a downturn could have widespread economic repercussions beyond just tech stock valuations.

Investors should monitor the profitability and return on investment of this physical AI infrastructure, particularly as demand for advanced AI chips and computing power potentially plateaus or shifts. The ability of companies to service their debt and demonstrate sustainable revenue growth, rather than just market share expansion, will be key indicators of future stability.